A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
